The Trend Explained

Tag: Trend

  • The Trend Explained

    The Trend Explained

    The Trend is an incredibly useful tool from the TrackMate rating system. Quickly analyse the Rating profile of all contenders in any race. If your potential selection is improving, declining or consistent in it’s performances you will be able to spot this in no time at all.

    Here are the features explained on this page:

    Sample Trend - TrackMate
    Example “Trend” – Showing trend points, Speed Rating and EDGE Ratings.

    Trend Line

    The TrackMate Trend is a visual representation of the horses ratings to date. This makes it easy to spot form of an improving, consistent or declining contender. Incredibly useful for spotting runs that are “Out of character”

    Trend Points

    Each trend point represents a run with the first rated run being the dot furthest to the left. Information for each race is available by clicking these points/dots.

    How to read the Trend

    The trend displays each horse’s form in the horizontal graphical line or “trend line“. It has been designed so you can easily and speedily ready form. Utilizing an easy to read graphic which clearly shows if the horse’s form is improving, declining, consistent or inconsistent.

    Improving Trend

    When the horizontal trend line is going upwards this is what we refer to as an “improving tend” meaning the result was better than the previous race.

    Declining Trend

    When the horizontal trend line is going downwards this is what we refer to as a “declining tend” meaning the result was worse than the previous race.

    Consistent Trend

    When the horizontal trend line doesn’t go up or down very much this is what we refer to as a “consistent tend” meaning the results are pretty similar. This can be true for part of the line, but the greater proportion represents greater consistency.

    Inconsistent Trend

    When the horizontal trend line goes up and down a lot then this is what we refer to as a “inconsistent tend” meaning the results are erratic. This can be true for part of the line, but the greater proportion represents greater inconsistency.

    Trend Point Information Popups

    Each dot or “trend point” represents a race that the horse has taken part in. On hover these points will change to red dots and when clicked will open the information popups.

    Samples Trend Popup - Trackmate
    Sample Race Card Trend Popup

    By clicking on these points you will see a popup with all the details of that particular race. You will have all the information you need; race conditions, race distance, jockey and many more including TrackMate Speed and EDGE ratings achieved for that run.

    Ignore Race Feature

    One of the great features of the TrackMate race card is the ability to “ignore” any of the horses runs for any reason you may have.

    Samples Trend Popup - Ignore Race - Trackmate
    Sample Race Card Trend Popup – Ignore Race Button

    If you decide that you are prepared to forgive a bad run or you know that the race distance just didn’t suit the animal or even if you think the jockey was no good in that race. Just click the trend point and then remove race from the popup.

  • How does TrackMate Work?

    How does TrackMate Work?

    The TrackMate race guides have been designed in such a way to be easy to read and easy to understand. Below are some examples of real race card ratings and how to easily start to pick winners.

    Rating Colours Explained

    We need to start with explaining what the rating colours mean before trying to explain anything else:

    Clear Top
    Top Rated
    2nd Rated
    3rd Rated
    4th Rated
    Rated Last
    No Colour
    Non-Runner
    –
    Not Rated

    Now you understand what the different colours represent… let’s move on.

    How should I be using TrackMate?

    There are many ways to use the TrackMate system and many ways to read the “picture” created by the colour-coded ratings integrated into the card.

    It can be used as your only method of selection or in conjunction with your own race reading abilities and knowledge of form. Both are extremely powerful.

    Remember, you do not have to bet in every race.

    The TrackMate Team

    Waiting for the right opportunity and most importantly, waiting for value is the key to success.

    Here are some examples of the type of picture you may come across:

    The “Messy Race”

    Sample Messy Race - 2019-08-03 Hamilton 17.50 - TrackMate
    Sample “Messy Race” – 3rd August 2019, Hamilton at 5:50pm

    In this race card example, you can see that the colours (ratings) all over the place. Nothing stands out as any better than the others because the colours are spread out across all of the runners.

    With this type of picture we would normally just move on to the next race… but is it worth a closer look? There might be an opportunity lurking somewhere. We are looking for a well-rated horse that represents good value.

    Can we clean up/filter the card and spot some value?

    Possible ways to clean a messy card:

    • Remove poorly rated horses from the ratings.
    • Check the going settings in the Race Card FIlter match today’s conditions.
    • Rate less runs. You can rate 3, 5 or 8.
    • Filter the remaining runners for Surface, Ground and Distance perhaps?

    If after exhausting all options you do not find an obvious or good value selection just move on to the next race.

    You do not need to find lots of selections. Just well rated and good value ones. If there are none that day, be patient, there will always be another race and another… and another!

    The “Standout Selection”

    You will see from this race card picture that there is an obvious contender. It is not hard to spot… green is good!

    Sample Stand Out Race - 2021-01-20 Southwell at 18.00 - TrackMate
    Sample “Standout Selection” – 12th December 2020, Cheltenham at 3:35pm

    The obvious horse to choose in the race above was “Bay Of Naples“. This picture indicates that the horse is:

    • Clear top-rated in “Rating 365”, “Rating Latest”, “Rating 100”, “Rating 200”, “Edge Latest”, “Edge 100” and “Edge 200”.
    • Top rated in “Win %”, “Fastest Standard” and “Average Standard”.
    • The stack best rating is top as is the stack latest.
    • The trend is improving/consistent.

    Everything you want in an investment based on the TrackMate ratings.

    The “Value Bet”

    Sample Value Bet - 2021-01-09 Kempton at 15.30 - TrackMate
    Sample “Value Bet” – 20th January 2021, Southwell at 6pm

    In theory all your bets should be value bets. The race example above is from this year’s ultra competitive Lanzarote hurdle and amazingly the winner “Boreham Bill” was totally unfancied at an incredible price of 66/1 and even bigger on the exchanges!

    In a scenario like this we would prefer the 80% to place and 20% to win staking strategy.

    In a big race like this one you will be able to obtain prices for as many as 6 places on the exchange.

    The “Lay Bet”

    Sample Lay Bet - 2019-01-05 Kempton at 17.15 - TrackMate
    Sample “Lay Bet” – 5th January 2019, Kempton at 5:15pm

    To those of you already familiar with the betting exchanges you will be aware of laying horses. It is essentially acting as the bookmaker and laying odds against the horse winning.

    In the above example the favourite “Luxford” looks like terrible value based on the TrackMate ratings and could potentially be the sort of horse you might want to lay on the exchanges.

    ALWAYS be cautious when using this function on an exchange. Make sure you understand betting exchanges before you attempt to lay horses.