TrackMate Warning System™

Tag: Strategies

  • TrackMate Warning System™

    TrackMate Warning System™

    The TrackMate Warning System identifies all races deemed as “High Risk” and flags them so you can immediately identify such races and treat them with caution.

    NEW TRACKMATE WARNING SYSTEM FEATURE IS COMING SOON!

    Races will be clearly indicated on the race card when implemented.

    There are no hard and fast rules. There will be plenty of well rated horses that win in all of the race types listed.

    Take extra care when selecting investments from race cards which have been identified as “High Risk”. Do a little extra research into your selection before jumping in.

    The TrackMate Team

    Risk is part of the game, but we try as often as possible to make sure we have the best chance of winning… regularly!

    We try to keep losses as small and infrequent as possible and one of the best ways to do that is to avoid “High Risk” races.

    Here are some of the factors the TrackMate Warning System analyses when identifying “High Risk” races:

    Low-Class Races – Class 6-7 (45-65 in Ireland)

    There is a lot of low-class racing in the UK and there are many more low-grade performers than high-class ones. These races are generally contested by poor quality horses. These animals are likely to be inconsistent and will rarely run two races alike.

    However, there are well handicapped horses out there as well as improvers and course specialists etc.

    Essentially you should be more selective if choosing to invest in this sort of race and we suggest you try to concentrate on very well-rated runners with one of the top jockeys riding who are more likely to get the best performance from the horse.

    “Selling & Claiming” Races

    A “selling race“, or seller, is one in which the winner is put up for auction immediately after the race.

    All of the horses in a Selling Race except the winner, which is auctioned on the racecourse, and all of the horses in a Claiming Race are able to be claimed at a value set against the horse by the trainer when making the entry.

    Usually fairly poor horses. Not really races to be investing in.

    Amateur Riders Races

    Very often both poor horses AND poor jockeys.

    Races with “Little or No Form”

    If a race has little or no form, the runners that are rated will obviously look better than they potentially are.

    Be careful, there can always be a better-unraced or un-rated horse in the mix. We have a top-rated horse who looks great, but can it beat a horse with no form at the top of the betting market? Is it worth the risk?

    Competitive “Big Field” Races

    We are not saying that you should not bet in big field races. There is an old saying in racing… “The bigger the field the bigger the incertainty” this can definitely be true. We just advise a bit of caution when looking at these highly competitive races.

    These races are very difficult to win and even more difficult to predict the winner.

    Races like these vary often have a significant draw bias and there are also many “bad luck” stories from runners who get blocked in their run.

    Again, we are not saying don’t bet in these races but if you do be aware that they are not easy to predict.

    Split stakes win/place or just wait for a better opportunity and enjoy watching the race. You might even find a future winner to stick in your notebook.

    Group 1 & Championship Races

    This might look like a strange one but is highly relevant.

    These days many of the big group races in both the Uk and Ireland have foreign horses running in them.

    These horses will be unrated if they haven’t run in the UK before. They are very difficult to rate against the European horses without the form from previous races.

    Be careful when looking at these races and note any unrated horses in the market for a clue to the chance it has in the race. Big races are also very highly competitive and are contested by only the top horses in the world. Again, not impossible but very hard to pick horses in these races.

    Hunter’s Chases

    Hunter Chases take place at national hunt racecourses, but are only open to horses that have hunter certificates.  Hunter certificates are issued to horses that have hunted for at least four days in the season before racing starts in January.

    National Hunt Flat Races (NH Flat)

    These are generally educational races for future jumpers. They are all young, immature and inexperienced horses.

    Jumpers Bumpers Meetings

    A recent innovation. These meetings are run on All-Weather tracks and were introduced to enable National Hunt horses to race when the weather has been bad and we have lost many meetings due to the weather.

    Definitely NOT races to be betting in.

    If you have any questions or comments with regards to the TrackMate Warning System or ratings click here to contact us and we will get back to you as soon as we can.

    TrackMate does not encourages reckless and unaffordable gambling. We recommend that readers who engage in gambling do so responsibly and set financial limits. If you have a concern about problem gambling, you can contact GamCare on 0845 6000 133 or gamcare.org.uk.

  • Don’t Over Complicate Things

    Don’t Over Complicate Things

    TrackMate has been designed to make your selection process quick and easy whether you are new to horse racing or a seasoned pro. To help make sure you don’t over complicate your selection process.

    Many services that offer similar platforms to TrackMate are often so desperate to impress that they invent new ways of representing what is essentially the same information with a new name.

    They publish confusing lists of numbers. Statistics that are nearly always unnecessary and time-consuming to digest and therefore just complicate things.

    At TrackMate we keep what is an incredibly complex ratings system simple.

    TrackMate’s ratings and visual aids are integrated into our unique race guides so each and every race can be assessed within seconds.

    Anything Can Happen!

    There are literally hundreds of variables in the preparation of a race horse. It starts with the trainer and the stable staff:

    • Have they done their job well?
    • Is the horse ready to race?
    • Is it fit?
    • Has it had any problems with its training schedule?
    • How much does it weigh?
    • Did it eat its breakfast this morning?
    • Did it have a good journey to the track?
    • The list goes on and on…

    The truth is, the vast majority of these factors must be taken on trust. It would be almost impossible for anyone to take all of these factors into consideration.

    Horse racing is a very expensive business to be in. Owners and Trainers do not send their horses to the track unless they are in good enough condition to do themselves justice in the race and stay fit and injury free.

    Contrary to popular belief, and we speak with experience, that the costs involved in owning and training a racehorse far outweigh the vast majority of any scullduggery that some people theorise exists in all racing.

    You will never stop horses running that will improve for the run. It’s not often that all the factors are perfect for all the horses in any given race.

    Some may prefer a different surface to race on and some may prefer a different distance.

    So… with all that in mind, what can we summise from the above statements?

    • Most horses in most races are running on their merits. They want to win and definitely want to try and pay for the costs involved in getting to the race.
    • The fitness and well-being of any horse must be taken on trust.
    • Horses will generally improve after one or two runs.

    It is important to realise that there are a lot of poor horses in training.

    They are generally inconsistent performers.

    They rarely win races so the best way to avoid these animals is to try and stay away from poor quality races.

    Read our TrackMate Warning System page for great advice… if you haven’t done so already!

    We have simplified the process of picking value investment opportunities.

    We don’t over complicate the selection process.

    You will quickly spot the most likely contenders in each race using the simple to read, colour-coded ratings on each race card.

    Here’s a sample race card… so let’s put what we have just learnt in to practice.

    Sample TrackMate Race Card

    It’s not a difficult choice in this race. Green is best… simple.

    But before we jump in blindly there are still a few simple checks we should make before betting our hard-earned cash.

    • Is the price good value? In the race above the answer is clearly yes as it is approx 9/4 (3.25).
    • Will the horse act on the prevailing ground conditions?
    • Has the horse got form at the distance of today’s race?
    • Has the horse won or placed before under the same conditions?
    • Is the race suitable for investment?
    • Is the horse reliable enough in this grade of race?
    • Are enough of the runners in the race rated to make a clear assessment of the race?

    All of this information is available on your race card along with the ratings for each horse.

    Stick to what you have learnt above. Find a system that works for you and don’t waiver from it without good reason. Keep it simple, don’t over complicate things and you won’t go far wrong!

  • Staking & Bankroll Management

    Staking & Bankroll Management

    Many members ask us what is the best method for bankroll management and implementing a good solid staking plan. We will provide with you all the information you need to make good decisions with your staking and bankroll management.

    If you are investing your hard-earned money into horse racing you should be doing it for fun. At the same time, you should treat it as an investment that you would rather not lose. By doing this you will already have an advantage against most punters out there.

    • Bankroll Management – Increase profitability and reduce risk by staking correctly
    • Bankroll size – How big should your bankroll be.
    • Staking Plans – Decide correctly and strategically how to stake your investments
    • Losing runs – learn how to stake correctly for risk reduction
    • Bet tracking – Use your MyTm page as a base for bankroll management and bet analysis.

    Bankroll Management

    A Common Mistake

    The first and most important thing to understand is that you must be prepared to lose your WHOLE KITTY.

    If you are not, you cannot stake correctly.

    You would be amazed at how many people, when asked how much of their bankroll they are prepared to lose say anything other than 100%.

    It should be about enjoying the experience and having fun without pressure.

    There is no point in a staking plan that allows for a 100 bet losing sequence if you are not mentally prepared to lose 100 points.

    Having a £100 bankroll but only being prepared to lose £50 is just silly.

    Decide how much you are prepared to invest into a Horse racing Kitty with the knowledge that you could lose it all.

    Bankroll Size

    Firstly. You should not bet on anything if you cannot afford to lose the money in the first place. Please, please think before you bet and if you feel you have a problem do not join our service. Betting on the horses is not an exact science and you are highly likely to lose.

    Betting should be fun. Even if you take it seriously, as many of our members do. Feeling the pressure of every losing bet is no good for you or your profitability.

    We strongly suggest that you use a betting bank of at least 100 bets (points).

    You must be willing to continue with your staking plan. Even if you have lost half or even most of your kitty.

    Losing runs happen. If at the start of your journey, you are prepared to lose your whole bankroll, this should not affect your staking strategy. Remember you can always start again.

    If you lose your entire bankroll due to a terrible run, you should have the ability to shrug it off and start again.

    Take the opportunity of looking back at your selection processes and or staking plan and try to figure out why your selections have not been performing.

    Staking Plans

    There are literally hundreds of staking plans available out there these days.

    At TrackMate we advocate a simple but highly effective staking plan strategy of betting 1% of our initial betting bank on each selection.

    There are two highly effective strategies you can use when deciding when to increase stakes.

    • Set your stake at 1% of your bankroll every day. Keep all bets the same size for that day and reset to 1% of the new balance the following day.
    • Set your stakes at 1% of initial bankroll and only increase stakes when your bankroll hits preset milestones.

    For example:

    Conservative compounding staking plan

    Starting bankroll is £200

    Bet size should be £2 per race and you should stick to this until your kitty reaches £300 or busts (100 bets)

    When your bankroll hits £300 you increase stakes to £3 (still 1% of the kitty) when your kitty hits £400 you start staking at £4 and so on.

    If you hit a losing run and your kitty hits the starting point of £200 again you drop back to £2 stakes.

    In this strategy as your bankroll increases so does your ability to absorb longer losing sequences. By the time you have made 50% profit. Your balance is now 150 bets deep.

    This is a sensible and structured approach to staking.

    Aggressive compounding staking plan

    Although this is still a fairly conservative staking plan as your bankroll should still start at at least 100 bets it is just slightly different to our more cautious approach above.

    This staking plan allows for daily stake sizes to be determined by the daily balance as long it’s above your bankroll starting size.

    As long as you are in profit the stake is set daily at 1% of current bankroll balance.

    If you are not in profit you level stake 1% of starting balance.

    For example:

    Starting balance is £200

    Bet size should be £2 per race and you should stick to this until you are in profit or your kitty busts (100 bets).

    As soon as you are in profit, your stakes increase in line with your balance but stay at 1%.

    If your kitty reaches £210. Your stakes the following day would be £2.10

    If your kitty drops back to £200 or below you resort to level staking £2 until you are in profit again.

    This is an incredibly profitable staking plan.

    These rules are not set in stone but if you follow this practice you will get a lot of fun for your small initial investment.

    Who knows maybe next season you will be able to start with a much larger starting kitty!

    losing runs

    There are so many variables to consider and endless unforeseen events occur which could alter the outcome of a horse race so bankroll preservation should be top of your list.

    You can see from the below table the potential losing sequences you can have with the specified strike rates. It is always best to have as big a bankroll as possible and start with small stakes.

    This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Estimated-Longest-Losing-Run-Ready-Reckoner.jpg

    As you can see. Even a 35% strike rate, which is incredibly high can endure losing sequences of up to 20 consecutive bets and we would always double this number at least in order to comfortably cover these inevitable runs.

    It happens. Get used to it.

    Bet Tracking

    One of the most important ways to maintain a proper bankroll management strategy is to incorporate a strict routine for logging your bets and results.

    How else can you keep track of all your investments.

    By keeping a record of all your bets you have the ability to spot “leaks” in your strategy and correct them when you spot them.

    You will find on your personal myTrackMAte page that all bets and stakes that you log in your MYslips are trannsfered automatically into and logged into your bet history page.

    All bets in this log are automatically updated daily with results and will keep a record of your profit/Loss figures as well as your strike rate and ROI.

    This incredible tool is available for all TM members and will help you manage your bets better than ever before.

  • The Stack Explained

    The Stack Explained

    One of the most exciting features of the TrackMate rating system is the stack. An incredible tool for the speedy analysis of the ratings in relation to the other runners in the race. It has many uses and can be an incredibly powerful tool when analysing races. There is a stack for both sets of ratings on every race card.

    On this page you will find explanations for the following:

    The “Stack” is a graphical representation of each horse’s range of performance from the qualifying form.

    • The top stack is speed ratings and is a thicker line.
    • The bottom stack is EDGE ratings and is a thinner line.

    Both stacks have the same rating markers for each horse’s qualify form.

    Sample Stack - TrackMate
    Sample “Stack” – Showing 100, 200 and most recent ratings and the range between worst and best.

    Range of Performance

    The narrower the line is, the more consistent the horse has been as the range between worst and best is less.

    The wider the line, the less consistent the horse has been as the range between worst and best is greater.

    Worst Rating

    The dot on the far left of each horizontal line is the horses worst rating for the qualifying form period.

    Best Rating

    The dot on the far right of each horizontal line is the horses best rating for the qualifying form period.

    100 Day Rating Icon

    The green triangle is the average speed rating for qualifying races for the last 100 days.

    200 Day Rating Icon

    The red triangle is the average speed rating for qualifying races for the last 200 days.

    Latest Rating Icon

    The blue circle is the rating for the last qualifying race.

    Vertical Guide Line

    There is a vertical guide line feature that appears when you hover over the grey guide bar under the stack column title. The line will be red when active as you move left and right over the guide bar. It will then stop moving and change to a grey dotted line when you move off the guide bar.

    This line is extremely useful to get a vertical comparison between all runners stacks in the race making it easier to visualise where the stacks and icons are in relation to each other.

    Great Stacks

    The stack can identify opportunities where horses could be deemed as well above the standard of the rest of the field.

    Here are two example of how to identify a “great stack”

    “Great Stack” Example 1 – 1st June 2019, Epsom Downs at 5:15pm

    In this example 1, you will clearly see that the stack for Soto Sizzler indicates that his form is way out in front of the rest of the field in both Speed and EDGE ratings.

    Sample Great Stack - 2020-11-09 Southwell at 18.05 - TrackMate
    “Great Stack” Example 2 – 9th November 2020, outhwell at 6:05pm

    You will see in example 2 that Queen Of Kalahari’s “worst” run is as good as any of the other runners “best” run and its best run is clearly best of all.

    The stack can also be used to find “poor value” horses and opportunities to “Lay” horses on the exchanges.

    Stack Point Information Popup Examples

    Latest Rating (blue circle)

    Samples Stack Popup - Latest Rating - Trackmate
    Sample Stack Point Information Popup – Latest Rating

    100 Day Rating (green triangle)

    Samples Stack Popup - Recent Rating - Trackmate
    Sample Stack Point Information Popup – Recent Rating

    200 Day Rating (red triangle)

    Samples Stack Popup - This Rating - Trackmate
    Sample Stack Point Information Popup – This Rating

    Best Rating (far right dot)

    Samples Stack Popup - Best Rating - Trackmate
    Sample Stack Point Information Popup – Latest Rating

    Worst Rating (far left dot)

    Samples Stack Popup - Worst Rating - Trackmate
    Sample Stack Point Information Popup – Latest Rating