TrackMate Race Factor Ratings

Category: Ratings

  • TrackMate Race Factor Ratings

    One of the most important things anyone interested in making horse racing profitable should know, is that the “Race Factors” are just as, if not more important than the ratings themselves.

    What are Race Factors ?

    As we have mentioned before there are certain things you must take on trust when backing a horse.

    It must be fit enough to do itself justice and it must be trying to win the race or at least obtain the best possible finishing position.

    As long as this is the case then the rest is up to you!

    So what else is important when deciding if your horse is capable of winning this race ?

    You need to know if this horse can perform in:

    • This class of race
    • At the distance of todays race
    • On the prevailing surface and ground conditions
    • At it’s current handicap or official rating.

    These are your four “Race Factors”

    It is all very well and good having fantastic ratings but they do not always tell you the whole story.

    The race factors listed above are just as important in your selection process as the ratings you are using to make your selections and also one of the most time consuming.

    Some races will have very little data for you to check the race factors.

    This should generally be an indication to be cautious.

    It means that we really do not know whether these animals can act at their best under todays prevailing conditions.

    Do you feel that you have sufficient confidence that your selection will act under todays conditions or are you just guessing?

    TrackMate’s “Race Factor Ratings”

    On the left hand side of all TrackMate race cards you will find the Race Factor Ratings.

    These ratings have been designed to work hand in hand with the Main TrackMate ratings and quickly provide you with all the information you need in order to assist you in your selection process.

    Easily see at a glance if your selection is suited by todays conditions.

    Colour coded to match the main ratings the race factor ratings include:

    CF = Class factor rating – Trackmate rating based on previous form in todays race class.

    DF = Distance Factor rating – Is the horse suited by the race distance

    GF = Surface/Going Factor rating – Horses ability to act on todays surface or ground conditions.

    OF = Handicap/Official rating Factor – TrackMate Handicap Rating – Chances of winning based on official rating under todays conditions.

    You can see in the above image that the selection. GOOD EARTH was not only rated very well in the main Speed and Edge ratings but the Race Factor Ratings were also indicating that the conditions of todays race were well within his abilities.

    In fact most of the runners in this race had conditions to suit. Although well rated by TrackMate. SHINING has no winning form in this class and has no winning form on this surface.

    This would perhaps confirm that the best value bet in this race is indeed GOOD EARTH.

    The three boxes within each rating indicate from top to bottom whether the horse has:

    Top box – The Overall TM Rating for Class – Distance – Going _ Handicap rating

    Middle box – Indicates winning form in above Race Factors

    Bottom box – Indicates winning place form Race Factors

  • The Perfect Picture

    The Perfect Picture

    Is this what the ideal potential bet should look like ? We think so!

    There is a horse running today that seems to fit the ideal profile of a TrackMate investment.

    In the above race, the 16.12 at Newcastle Greengage is clearly the one to be interested in.

    Clear top-rated over all 3 time periods in the EDGE ratings he is also clear top-rated in the TM ratings.

    His TM speed ratings “stack” is clear of the field indicating that his latest run is better than the rest of the field’s best run! He is consistent and has form in the same conditions as today’s race.

    The only negative here is the fact that the race is a class 6 which are generally contested by poor, inconsistent horses.

    Greengage is a course and distance winner and in fine form which is more than can be said for the rest of the field.

    At the time of writing this one is 3/1 so looks like a great value investment.

    Either way and win or lose a picture like this is definitely one you should all be looking out for.

  • Rain rain go away

    Rain rain go away

    You will hear me go on about this on a regular basis. Not just to help our members with sound advice but also to remind me that just because a horse is well rated does not mean that it will win the race.

    TrackMate is a great tool for just looking at the colours and picking the one with the best ratings but as with anything in life you will miss opportunities and make unnecessary mistakes or losses that could be avoided with just a little investigation.

    All the information you need is available on the TrackMate racecard including the forecast ground conditions.

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    The Going and the weather

    There are many reasons why well rated horses don’t run to their best all the time.

    Sometimes they just have an off day. We all have them and horses are no different. They could be poorly drawn and literally have no chance from their starting stall or they could meet trouble in running which means they just couldn’t get there in time.

    The main reason for horses not performing at their best is that the ground conditions on the day of the race were unsuitable for the horse.

    Some horses (not many) will be able to perform to their best on most surfaces or ground conditions but the vast majority have a “favoured” surface for them to perform at their best.

    Most horses will go well on a turf surface when the ground is anywhere from “Good” to “Good to Firm” some will prefer it a bit quicker (Firm) and some will appreciate a little bit of juice in the ground (Good to Soft or Yielding).

    The Majority of the time the horses are declared for races that will be suitable for the animal and the Trainers will have normally checked the forecast ground conditions as a matter of course.

    You should always check the ground conditions before you invest. Often the Weather changes and with it the ground conditions.

    It is not unheard of for the going to change from “good to firm” to “Soft” in the space of a couple of hours when it rains heavily.

    If your selection has never run well with the ground softer than “good” then it is highly unlikely that today will be any different.

    Sometimes it will be beneficial for the trainer to still run the horse under conditions that are not suitable but will help with the horses’ fitness. This is not great for the punters.

    As a Trainer, sometimes it is a good idea to run a horse with conditions less than ideal in order to allow the handicapper to reduce the horse’s official rating which means that in the future the horse will carry less weight.

    Conclusion

    Rain sucks !

    In my experience and from many years of observation it is the best policy in the long run to stop all betting activities while the ground conditions are worse than good to soft. Period.

    The majority of horses will act on ground in the range from “good to soft” to “good to firm” and this is the range of ground conditions we should be betting in.

    This is particularly important on days when the going has changed during the course of the meeting.

    “Heavy” ground is the Devils spawn and should be avoided at all costs during the Flat racing season

    We would even suggest no bets during the National Hunt season when the ground is “Heavy”.

    TrackMate Tip

    Make use of your Notebook / Horse Tracking system that is provided for TrackMate members.

    Very often, well rated horses who run poorly on unsuitable ground will run a big race next time out even if not so well rated.

    Each race is rated individually in the TrackMate system and ratings will differ depending on the form of the other horses in the race.

    Have a look at the Trend, is there an obvious bad rating that is affecting the horses overall rating? If there is, try removing the race from the ratings (click race in trend to remove run) and see how this changes the “Picture” of the race.